Top Reasons Why Gartner Predicts Rise in Global Mobile Shipment While PC Sales are Expected to Fall in 2020

Research firm Gartner, has predicted that global shipment of computer devices from manufacturing companies will rise by 0.9% in 2020. This is an increase from the last year’s value of 2.15 billion units of devices (the lowest since 2010) shipped globally.

Gartner’s research studied the number of tablets, mobile phones and PCs that were shipped worldwide last year and predicted an increase in shipment to 2.16 billion units for 2020. This is still a decline when compared to 2005 when shipment was between 2.4 and 2.5 billion units.

Phone shipment expected to rise

The increase projected for phone shipment is based on the projected impact of 5G technology. As manufacturers continue to ship out more and more ‘5G-ready’ phones, it is expected that end users will purchase more of these devices to replace existing 4G-enabled ones currently in use.

In 2020, the quantity of smartphones shipped will increase slighly year on year by 1.7% and emerging markets are expected to lead this increment. It is expected that 5G phones will account for 12% of the total phone shipment in 2020 with the percentage increasing year on year to 43% in 2022 due to reducing prices.

“From 2020, Gartner expects an increase in 5G phone adoption as prices decrease, 5G service coverage increases and users have better experiences with 5G phones. The market will experience a further increase in 2023, when 5G handsets will account for over 50% of the mobile phones shipped”

Ranjit Atwal, Senior Research Director, Gartner.

Why is PC shipment expected to decline in 2020 and beyond?

Microsoft will not release a Windows 11 OS upgrade, therefore the push to purchase PCs compliant with OS upgrades from Microsoft will come to an end. Instead, upgrades to Windows 10 will be released periodically and there may not be a pressing need for users to switch PCs to latest ones.

This will likely result in a decline in demand and consequently, a decline in the quantity of PCs shipped worldwide.

Through 2020 however, as enterprises and individuals respond to Microsoft’s withdrawal of support for Windows 7, there will be more switching from older PCs to recent ones that can run supported versions of the Windows OS.

Altogether, an estimated 1 billion devices will be making the upgrade from Windows 7 in 2020.

Techcrunch added that increased upgrades to chromebooks, and demand for smartwatches (chiefly Apple watch) may also affect the shipment rate in 2020 and beyond. However, higher shipment numbers do not translate to higher sales, only an indicator of the number of devices that can be sold.

It is an ongoing debate whether or not 5G will affect the shipment of hardware as industry players also argue that not much apps and services are being developed as an incentive for people to adopt more 5G devices.